How can Africa grow and stabilise its job market?

by Developed Africa 22. January 2017 12:47

Increasing employment opportunities

  • Sub-Saharan Africa faces a rise in the share of its working-age population (WAP). Population data indicates that the WAP in the sub-Saharan African region will increase by 70 percent from 466 million in 2013 to 793 million in 2030 (Lam and Leibbrandt, 2013).
  • Farming is the dominant occupation of most young Africans. The agriculture that will allow young farmers to prosper will have to draw on quality modern agricultural science – at present it does not.
  • Lack of access to finance for youth and particularly women entrepreneurs further limits growth and expansion opportunities.
  • A broader vision of high-quality education (one that fosters the full breadth of skills needed in a changing world) should be a priority in 2017.
  • Broadening access to education will ensure a steady supply of skilled workers into the labour market to support the transition to higher value added sectors.
  • it is important to diversify economic activity away from the current high concentration in traditional low value added agriculture, as it is in many African economies, to more productive activities such as agri-processing, manufacturing, and high-value added services.
  • For those young self-employed workers in the informal sector, there should be institutional mechanisms that ensure adequate access to credit, in light of the fact that these individuals are likely to be wealth and asset constrained.
  • Event to watch: African Union Assembly Meeting – January 24-31, 2017

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How can Africa manage the commodity slump and attract investment?

by Developed Africa 21. January 2017 21:40

 

American research group The Brookings Institution has just published its annual Foresight Africa project - a series of reports, commentaries and events aimed at helping policymakers and speculators stay ahead of developments impacting the continent.

Mobilising financial resources

  • By early 2016, oil exporters’ current account surpluses had breached a 10-year low. The price of the commodity fell from $112 per barrel in mid-2014 to less than $39 in early January 2016. In 2017, policymakers will continue to face gloomy prospects.
  • Ghana’s growth rate is projected to rise substantially in 2017 following the opening of a new oil field. This may increase the country’s output by almost 50 percent.
  • Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Senegal, and Tanzania are expected to remain within the top five African countries with the highest growth rates in 2016 and 2017, based on current estimates.
  • Many social challenges that were once exclusively the domain of government budgets and aid groups can today be tackled with help from business
  • Enhancing agricultural productivity is not an outdated concept. Higher productivity would raise the income of farmers and free up resources for other economic sectors.
  • Fiscally vulnerable commodity-rich countries could reduce fiscal deficit by reducing government spending and increasing efficiency in 2017. They could also increase tax rates.
  • Countries like Nigeria and Angola could quickly mobilise revenues from non-commodity-related activities by increasing their VAT rates with relatively small side effects on economic activity.
  • Event to watch: The African Development Bank Group’s 2017 annual meetings – May 22-26, 2017
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Some More Myths About Africa

by Developed Africa 29. November 2016 18:08

Euler Hermes debunks five more myths about Africa

Myth 6: No-one is going to finance African growth

Once the oil aftershock has worn off, Africa will resume growing at an average +3% a year. Some countries still post record growth rates higher than +5%, despite the hard shock. In addition, the financing and rebalancing of growth, including investments to be made, will be the key to a sustainable takeoff. The mix of funding will be crucial. In addition to external resources, particularly from foreign direct investment (FDI), some countries are already able to finance at least part of their growth with budgetary resources. This is the case in South Africa, Egypt and Senegal where they account for 25% and 30% of GDP in 2016. Household confidence and investor confidence will be indispensable to collect savings.

Nevertheless, the way ahead will be thorny: (i) budgetary revenues make up only 14.5% on average of the African GDP, compared with 30% in developed countries; (ii) FDI is only 2% of GDP, compared with 2.4% in developed countries.

Myth 7: African consumers are not bankable

Consumption growth in Africa is well under way. In 2016, Africa reports the highest consumption growth rates, led by Cote d'Ivoire (+6%), Uganda (+7%) and Nigeria (+5%), compared with +1.4% in OECD countries or +2% in Pacific Asia. Consumption development in Africa is driven by the continent's exploding urbanization: by 2045, African towns will be flooded with 24 million people, compared with only nine million in China and 11 million in India.

But African consumption development should follow a different path from that of developed countries. The wealth effect and internet access add to the volume growth of African consumption.

Consumers in Africa are going to skip some steps and force business sectors to reconsider their approach. This is especially striking in distribution, financial services or transports: for example, 70% of Moroccans have internet access (55% in China), and 14% of Kenyans use contactless payment cards (60% of French are still and always using bank checks).Euler Hermes has worked out a proprietary consumption potential indicator combining these three determinants. The verdict is final: Nigeria, Kenya, Morocco, Egypt and South Africa are the leading pack, followed by Ghana, Ivory Coast, Tanzania, Sudan and DRC.

Myth 8: It's hard to work with African companies

Given the payment terms granted by foreign suppliers to African companies, it is indisputable that stronger confidence would free considerable resources for growth. Out of EUR 800bn of goods imported every year by Africa, approx. 60% are paid cash. If transactions were settled at 30 days, this would free EUR 40bn of working capital requirements, equal to the GDP of Tanzania, or to 1.6% of the GDP of Africa.

This situation engenders a sort of vicious cycle for African companies. Their cash flow suffers from the multiplication of cash payments, and this makes them more exposed to possible economic risks. As for domestic trade, this calculation in a country like Nigeria generates EUR 10bn of additional cash flows: a foot on the ladder for growth-seeking SMEs.

Myth 9: Agriculture is a thing of the past

Agriculture is the driver of econom ic growth in Africa: it remains the first contributor to employment and lifts millions of people out of poverty every year. Nevertheless, what is needed is a true green revolution to accelerate the catalyst role of the farming sector, by focusing productivity, market access and technologic contents.

In terms of growth by value of agricultural exports from 2005 to 2015, Ethiopia and Ivory Coast (+30%), Kenya and Rwanda (+20%) have specialised in high-value cash crops. Other countries, such as Zambia, Senegal and Morocco, have managed to use mechanisation and technology to increase agricultural productivity.

Myth 10: It's hard to find entrepreneurs and talents in Africa 

Education levels are increasing in Africa. In particular, access to university education in Cameroon has grown from 4.6% in 2000 to 13% in 2013. However, even in South Africa, the most proficient student, the percentage of youth entering university is only 20% by age group. Furthermore, official statistics on entrepreneurship are disappointing: in South Africa, just to make an example, only two companies are set up every 1 000 inhabitants.

These low figures mask the rampant informal entrepreneurship that is set to remain the basis for human capital development in the short term. Therefore, attention should be focused just on this entrepreneurial environment, apart from access to education. In Nigeria and Uganda for example, the towns of Lagos and Kampala have only recently reformed their registry system, a big problem for all those wishing to start business.

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Developed Africa has joined forces with Riviere Noir

by David Foxman 16. November 2016 16:20

Since setting out to promote African business opportunities we think we’ve learnt quite a lot about the dos and don’ts of investing in African projects – mostly don’ts, unfortunately! One of the dos, however, is the real need for proactivity. It would be nice to think that you can set out your stall of opportunities and that investors and businesses will beat a path to your door, but it doesn’t often happen that way. Absent an obvious arbitrage, political risk and credit risk mean that in most cases projects need a lot of extra selling to US and European prospects. That additional selling isn’t simply promotion per se; it also means structuring, explaining and financing business opportunities optimally.

That’s why Alex Glover of financial consultants Riviere Noir (rivierenoir.com) and I have decided to combine our resources to jointly offer consultancy services that will genuinely help viable African projects get started, and help companies and investors from outside Africa identify and tease out the advantages of opportunities in Africa. Between us we have the insight, hands-on skills, flexibility, experience and – crucially – contacts to do this.

Contact info@developedafrica.com for more information. 

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Highlights: Africa Attractiveness Survey 2013

by Developed Africa 11. July 2013 09:00

Moon rising over Cape Town, South Africa

We spoke in the last post briefly about the Ernst & Young 2013 Africa Attractiveness Survey and thought it might be of interest to flag up a few of our highlights from the document.

The 2012 edition of the Survey focused on the huge jump in foreign direct investments (FDIs) in Africa - up 27% from the original survey in 2010 - and stressed that, despite the criticisms, the narrative surrounding the continent's rise should be told "more confidently and consistently". The new edition continues this bullishness, it's Executive Summary titled, "Africa's rise is real". Ersnet & Young focus on economic facts and dismiss any scepticism out of hand - this growth is consistent, it is diverse and it should be celebrated.

The story is not totally one-sided, however, as FDIs have decreased in the last year despite the ongoing rise in global esteem that the continent seems to be going through. Greenfield FDI projects were down 12% from 2012 - although, that is in a global context where all such projects were down 15%. There are other issues, too, such as the perception of conducting business in Africa. Again, despite Africa's rise, many foreign investors remain unwilling to do business there. As it states on page 5,

However, the big take away for us from this year’s survey is the stark and enduring perception gap between those respondents who are already doing business in Africa versus those that have not yet invested in the continent... those with no business presence in Africa are far more negative about Africa’s progress and prospects. Only 47% of these respondents believe Africa’s attractiveness  will improve over the next three years, and they rank Africa as the least attractive investment destination in the world."

As we recently highlighted, the potential of African business is being severely limited by the lack of proper communication about how much commercial potential there is. Developed Africa seeks to directly combat that so do check out our homepage for more.

The good news is that the percieved attractiveness of various sectors in Africa has improved allowing for more diverse business models. As stated on page 41,

There has been a marked shift in perceived sector attractiveness; resources remain top of the list, but not by far, with infrastructure and some of the service sectors gaining considerably in prominence"

Previously unheralded sectors like Education, ICT or Financial Services have become hugely more attractive, complimenting the long standing interest in commodities and energy related projects in the region. This is a terrific opportunity for entrepreneurs and established businesses alike to move into new and exciting ventures.

The survey ends with a section focused on how Africa can continue to grow in the next year. The first point this section makes is to stress the vital importance of FDIs to the region. These act as catalysts for intra-continental trade, improvements in infrastructure and job creation. Africa has the largest employable population in the world and will continue to grow with or without foreign investors. However, it will grow faster and more effectively with the injection of funds and the creation of international commercial partnerships.

The conclusion on page 64 puts it neatly,

Business has to be viewed as an essential partner in driving the growth and development agenda."

[Read the whole survey report here]

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